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Foncha ST vs Union Douala — Elite Two 2020

Foncha ST
Foncha ST
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Union Douala
Union Douala
5/6/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Foncha ST51%
×Draw23%
Union Douala26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foncha ST
1.85
Union Douala
1.25

Foncha ST creates 48% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 11 away

creates per match

Foncha ST
1.35
Union Douala
1.45

allows per match

Foncha ST
1.06
Union Douala
2.36

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw
74%
Foncha ST or Union Douala
77%
Draw or Union Douala
49%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+
29%
Union Douala wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals
84%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
55%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
28%
Union Douala 1+ goals
71%
Union Douala 2+ goals
36%
Union Douala 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)
66%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Union Douala away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + Union Douala defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.85

Union Douala attack 1.45 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Foncha ST scores more
51%
level
23%
Union Douala scores more
26%

Foncha ST at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Foncha ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foncha ST vs Union Douala

Foncha ST beat Union Douala 5-1 in Elite Two on May 6, 2026.