Union Douala 1–0 Fauve Azur Elite: Result & Stats

Union Douala

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fauve Azur Elite

6/11/2025

Elite One · Round 27Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Union Douala41%

×Draw32%

Fauve Azur Elite27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union DoualaExpected goals in this matchFauve Azur Elite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.79

Union Douala

1.04

Fauve Azur Elite

0.79

Union Douala creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

0.60

0.99

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Union Douala

1.00

Fauve Azur Elite

0.60

allows per match

Union Douala

0.99

Fauve Azur Elite

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par

Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

Fauve Azur Elite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw

73%

Union Douala or Fauve Azur Elite

68%

Draw or Fauve Azur Elite

59%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+

16%

Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals

65%

Union Douala 2+ goals

28%

Union Douala 3+ goals

9%

Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals

55%

Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals

19%

Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)

60%

Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Fauve Azur Elite away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Fauve Azur Elite attack 0.60 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union Douala scores more

41%

level

32%

Fauve Azur Elite scores more

27%

Union Douala at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff