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Fauve Azur Elite vs Union Douala — Elite One 2019

Fauve Azur Elite
Fauve Azur Elite
FT
2 – 1
Union Douala
Union Douala
2/14/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 12Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fauve Azur Elite48%
×Draw30%
Union Douala22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fauve Azur Elite
1.21
Union Douala
0.72

Fauve Azur Elite creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

creates per match

Fauve Azur Elite
1.33
Union Douala
0.71

allows per match

Fauve Azur Elite
0.73
Union Douala
1.08

finishing

Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fauve Azur Elite ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fauve Azur Elite or draw
78%
Fauve Azur Elite or Union Douala
70%
Draw or Union Douala
52%

Winning margin

Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+
21%
Union Douala wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals
70%
Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals
34%
Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals
12%
Union Douala 1+ goals
51%
Union Douala 2+ goals
16%
Union Douala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)
68%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fauve Azur Elite at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fauve Azur Elite attack 1.33 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Union Douala attack 0.71 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fauve Azur Elite scores more
48%
level
30%
Union Douala scores more
22%

Fauve Azur Elite at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fauve Azur Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fauve Azur Elite vs Union Douala

Fauve Azur Elite beat Union Douala 2-1 in Elite One on February 14, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.