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Union Douala vs Dynamo de Douala — Elite One 2019

Union Douala
Union Douala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
2/2/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 10Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Union Douala33%
×Draw29%
Dynamo de Douala38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Douala
1.06
Dynamo de Douala
1.17

Dynamo de Douala creates 10% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 38 away

creates per match

Union Douala
1.00
Dynamo de Douala
1.34

allows per match

Union Douala
0.99
Dynamo de Douala
1.13

finishing

Union Douala+0.00on par
Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Douala ↓

Dynamo de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Union Douala or draw
62%
Union Douala or Dynamo de Douala
71%
Draw or Dynamo de Douala
67%

Winning margin

Union Douala wins by 2+
13%
Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Union Douala 1+ goals
65%
Union Douala 2+ goals
29%
Union Douala 3+ goals
9%
Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
69%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
33%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Union Douala (draw refunded)
46%
Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Douala at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 85 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Douala attack 1.00 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.34 + Union Douala defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Union Douala scores more
33%
level
29%
Dynamo de Douala scores more
38%

Dynamo de Douala at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Union Douala 1–0 Dynamo de Douala

Union Douala beat Dynamo de Douala 1-0 in Elite One on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Annexe de la Reunification in Douala.