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Dynamo de Douala vs Union Douala — Elite One 2019

Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Douala
Union Douala
5/25/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 25Stade de Bonamoussadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Dynamo de Douala45%
×Draw30%
Union Douala25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dynamo de Douala
1.21
Union Douala
0.82

Dynamo de Douala creates 48% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 85 away

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala
1.33
Union Douala
0.71

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala
0.93
Union Douala
1.08

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw
75%
Dynamo de Douala or Union Douala
70%
Draw or Union Douala
55%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
20%
Union Douala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
70%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
34%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
12%
Union Douala 1+ goals
56%
Union Douala 2+ goals
20%
Union Douala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
64%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 42 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.33 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Union Douala attack 0.71 + Dynamo de Douala defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more
45%
level
30%
Union Douala scores more
25%

Dynamo de Douala at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Dynamo de Douala 1–0 Union Douala

Dynamo de Douala beat Union Douala 1-0 in Elite One on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Bonamoussadi in Douala.