1º de Maio 1–1 Atlético do Namibe: Result & Stats

1º de Maio

FT

1 – 1

Atlético do Namibe

9/21/2013

Girabola · Round 24Estádio Municipal de Benguela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

1º de Maio46%

×Draw26%

Atlético do Namibe28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1º de MaioExpected goals in this matchAtlético do Namibe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.07

1º de Maio

1.44

Atlético do Namibe

1.07

1º de Maio creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 7 away

1.18

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

1º de Maio

1.18

Atlético do Namibe

1.14

allows per match

1º de Maio

1.00

Atlético do Namibe

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1º de Maio+0.00on par

Atlético do Namibe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º de Maio ↓

Atlético do Namibe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

1º de Maio or draw

72%

1º de Maio or Atlético do Namibe

74%

Draw or Atlético do Namibe

54%

Winning margin

1º de Maio wins by 2+

22%

Atlético do Namibe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

1º de Maio 1+ goals

76%

1º de Maio 2+ goals

42%

1º de Maio 3+ goals

18%

Atlético do Namibe 1+ goals

66%

Atlético do Namibe 2+ goals

29%

Atlético do Namibe 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

1º de Maio (draw refunded)

62%

Atlético do Namibe (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º de Maio at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Atlético do Namibe away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º de Maio attack 1.18 + Atlético do Namibe defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atlético do Namibe attack 1.14 + 1º de Maio defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

1º de Maio scores more

46%

level

26%

Atlético do Namibe scores more

28%

1º de Maio at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "1º de Maio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff