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Atlético do Namibe vs 1º de Maio — Girabola 2019

Atlético do Namibe
Atlético do Namibe
FT
4 – 1
1º de Maio
1º de Maio
4/27/2013GirabolaGirabola · Round 9Estádio Joaquim Morais

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Atlético do Namibe55%
×Draw24%
1º de Maio22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético do Namibe
1.74
1º de Maio
1.00

Atlético do Namibe creates 74% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 18 away

creates per match

Atlético do Namibe
1.86
1º de Maio
0.72

allows per match

Atlético do Namibe
1.29
1º de Maio
1.61

finishing

Atlético do Namibe+0.00on par
1º de Maio+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético do Namibe ↓

1º de Maio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Atlético do Namibe or draw
78%
Atlético do Namibe or 1º de Maio
76%
Draw or 1º de Maio
45%

Winning margin

Atlético do Namibe wins by 2+
30%
1º de Maio wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Atlético do Namibe 1+ goals
82%
Atlético do Namibe 2+ goals
52%
Atlético do Namibe 3+ goals
25%
1º de Maio 1+ goals
63%
1º de Maio 2+ goals
26%
1º de Maio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atlético do Namibe (draw refunded)
72%
1º de Maio (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético do Namibe at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

1º de Maio away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético do Namibe attack 1.86 + 1º de Maio defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.74

1º de Maio attack 0.72 + Atlético do Namibe defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atlético do Namibe scores more
55%
level
24%
1º de Maio scores more
22%

Atlético do Namibe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlético do Namibe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Atlético do Namibe 4–1 1º de Maio

Atlético do Namibe beat 1º de Maio 4-1 in Girabola on April 27, 2013.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Morais.