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Union Comercio vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2026

Union Comercio
Union Comercio
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
3/12/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Union Comercio41%
×Draw25%
Sport Huancayo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Comercio
1.50
Sport Huancayo
1.33

Union Comercio creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 147 away

creates per match

Union Comercio
1.50
Sport Huancayo
1.05

allows per match

Union Comercio
1.62
Sport Huancayo
1.50

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par
Sport Huancayo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

Sport Huancayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw
66%
Union Comercio or Sport Huancayo
75%
Draw or Sport Huancayo
59%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+
20%
Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals
78%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
44%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
19%
Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
74%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
38%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)
55%
Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.62 · 74 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.50 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 1.50 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sport Huancayo attack 1.05 + Union Comercio defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Union Comercio scores more
41%
level
25%
Sport Huancayo scores more
34%

Union Comercio at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Union Comercio 2–0 Sport Huancayo

Union Comercio beat Sport Huancayo 2-0 in Primera División on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García in Tarapoto.