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Sport Huancayo vs Union Comercio — Primera División 2026

Sport Huancayo
Sport Huancayo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
8/11/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Sport Huancayo57%
×Draw23%
Union Comercio20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Huancayo
1.80
Union Comercio
0.95

Sport Huancayo creates 89% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 74 away

creates per match

Sport Huancayo
1.64
Union Comercio
0.81

allows per match

Sport Huancayo
1.08
Union Comercio
1.97

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw
80%
Sport Huancayo or Union Comercio
77%
Draw or Union Comercio
43%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+
33%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals
83%
Sport Huancayo 2+ goals
54%
Sport Huancayo 3+ goals
27%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
61%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
25%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)
74%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.08 · 145 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.97 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.64 + Union Comercio defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.80

Union Comercio attack 0.81 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more
57%
level
23%
Union Comercio scores more
20%

Sport Huancayo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Huancayo vs Union Comercio

Sport Huancayo and Union Comercio drew 1-1 in Primera División on August 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.