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Union Comercio vs Real Garcilaso — Primera División 2018

Union Comercio
Union Comercio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
7/25/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 8Estadio IPD de Nueva Cajamarca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Union Comercio43%
×Draw25%
Real Garcilaso32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Comercio
1.54
Real Garcilaso
1.29

Union Comercio creates 19% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 39 away

creates per match

Union Comercio
1.50
Real Garcilaso
0.97

allows per match

Union Comercio
1.62
Real Garcilaso
1.59

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par
Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

Real Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw
68%
Union Comercio or Real Garcilaso
75%
Draw or Real Garcilaso
57%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+
21%
Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals
79%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
45%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
20%
Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
72%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
37%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)
57%
Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.62 · 74 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 1.50 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Union Comercio defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Union Comercio scores more
43%
level
25%
Real Garcilaso scores more
32%

Union Comercio at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Union Comercio 1–0 Real Garcilaso

Union Comercio beat Real Garcilaso 1-0 in Primera División on July 25, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio IPD de Nueva Cajamarca in Cajamarca.