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Real Garcilaso vs Union Comercio — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
11/18/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso61%
×Draw22%
Union Comercio17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.83
Union Comercio
0.83

Real Garcilaso creates 120% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 74 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
Union Comercio
0.81

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
Union Comercio
1.97

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
83%
Real Garcilaso or Union Comercio
78%
Draw or Union Comercio
39%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
36%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
84%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
54%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
28%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
56%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
20%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
79%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.97 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Union Comercio defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.83

Union Comercio attack 0.81 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
61%
level
22%
Union Comercio scores more
17%

Real Garcilaso at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Garcilaso vs Union Comercio

Real Garcilaso beat Union Comercio 4-0 in Primera División on November 18, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.