Union Comercio 3–1 Deportivo Municipal

Union Comercio

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Deportivo Municipal

9/30/2018

Primera División · Clausura - 6Estadio IPD de Nueva Cajamarca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Union Comercio42%

×Draw24%

Deportivo Municipal34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union ComercioExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Municipal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.44

Union Comercio

1.61

Deportivo Municipal

1.44

Union Comercio creates 12% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 102 away

1.50

creates per match

1.25

1.62

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Union Comercio

1.50

Deportivo Municipal

1.25

allows per match

Union Comercio

1.62

Deportivo Municipal

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

Deportivo Municipal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw

66%

Union Comercio or Deportivo Municipal

76%

Draw or Deportivo Municipal

58%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+

21%

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals

80%

Union Comercio 2+ goals

48%

Union Comercio 3+ goals

22%

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

76%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

42%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)

55%

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.62 · 74 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 1.50 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + Union Comercio defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union Comercio scores more

42%

level

24%

Deportivo Municipal scores more

34%

Union Comercio at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff