Deportivo Municipal 2–0 Union Comercio

Deportivo Municipal

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Union Comercio

3/26/2023

Primera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Deportivo Municipal51%

×Draw25%

Union Comercio24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MunicipalExpected goals in this matchUnion Comercio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.00

Deportivo Municipal

1.60

Union Comercio

1.00

Deportivo Municipal creates 60% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 74 away

1.24

creates per match

0.81

1.19

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.24

Union Comercio

0.81

allows per match

Deportivo Municipal

1.19

Union Comercio

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Municipal ↓

Union Comercio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Municipal or draw

76%

Deportivo Municipal or Union Comercio

75%

Draw or Union Comercio

49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+

27%

Union Comercio wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals

80%

Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals

47%

Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals

22%

Union Comercio 1+ goals

63%

Union Comercio 2+ goals

26%

Union Comercio 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)

68%

Union Comercio (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Municipal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 102 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.97 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.24 + Union Comercio defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.60

Union Comercio attack 0.81 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Municipal scores more

51%

level

25%

Union Comercio scores more

24%

Deportivo Municipal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Municipal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff