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Union Comercio vs Deportivo Garcilaso — Primera División 2026

Union Comercio
Union Comercio
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
10/22/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 18Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Union Comercio38%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Garcilaso36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Comercio
1.41
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 61 away

creates per match

Union Comercio
1.50
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.11

allows per match

Union Comercio
1.62
Deportivo Garcilaso
1.31

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par
Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

Deportivo Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw
64%
Union Comercio or Deportivo Garcilaso
75%
Draw or Deportivo Garcilaso
62%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals
76%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
41%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)
51%
Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.62 · 74 matches

Deportivo Garcilaso away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.31 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 1.50 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.11 + Union Comercio defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Union Comercio scores more
38%
level
25%
Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
36%

Union Comercio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Comercio vs Deportivo Garcilaso

Deportivo Garcilaso beat Union Comercio 2-1 in Primera División on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García in Tarapoto.