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Deportivo Garcilaso vs Union Comercio — Primera División 2026

Deportivo Garcilaso
Deportivo Garcilaso
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
8/21/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Deportivo Garcilaso56%
×Draw24%
Union Comercio21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.75
Union Comercio
0.96

Deportivo Garcilaso creates 82% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 74 away

creates per match

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.52
Union Comercio
0.81

allows per match

Deportivo Garcilaso
1.11
Union Comercio
1.97

finishing

Deportivo Garcilaso+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Garcilaso ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Deportivo Garcilaso or draw
79%
Deportivo Garcilaso or Union Comercio
76%
Draw or Union Comercio
44%

Winning margin

Deportivo Garcilaso wins by 2+
31%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Garcilaso 1+ goals
83%
Deportivo Garcilaso 2+ goals
52%
Deportivo Garcilaso 3+ goals
25%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
62%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
25%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Garcilaso (draw refunded)
73%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Garcilaso at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.97 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Garcilaso attack 1.52 + Union Comercio defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.75

Union Comercio attack 0.81 + Deportivo Garcilaso defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Deportivo Garcilaso scores more
56%
level
24%
Union Comercio scores more
21%

Deportivo Garcilaso at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Deportivo Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Deportivo Garcilaso 3–1 Union Comercio

Deportivo Garcilaso beat Union Comercio 3-1 in Primera División on August 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.