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Union Comercio vs Deportivo Coopsol — Segunda División 2018

Union Comercio
Union Comercio
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
8/21/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 8Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Union Comercio58%
×Draw22%
Deportivo Coopsol20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Comercio
1.92
Deportivo Coopsol
1.01

Union Comercio creates 90% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 91 away

creates per match

Union Comercio
2.20
Deportivo Coopsol
1.18

allows per match

Union Comercio
0.84
Deportivo Coopsol
1.63

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par
Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw
80%
Union Comercio or Deportivo Coopsol
78%
Draw or Deportivo Coopsol
42%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+
34%
Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals
85%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
57%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
30%
Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)
75%
Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.84 · 45 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 2.20 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.92

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Union Comercio defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Union Comercio scores more
58%
level
22%
Deportivo Coopsol scores more
20%

Union Comercio at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Union Comercio 4–0 Deportivo Coopsol

Union Comercio beat Deportivo Coopsol 4-0 in Segunda División on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García in Tarapoto.