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Deportivo Coopsol vs Union Comercio — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
5/24/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Estadio Romulo Shaw Cisneros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Deportivo Coopsol37%
×Draw28%
Union Comercio35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Coopsol
1.22
Union Comercio
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 45 away

creates per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.32
Union Comercio
1.33

allows per match

Deportivo Coopsol
1.02
Union Comercio
1.11

finishing

Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Coopsol ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Deportivo Coopsol or draw
65%
Deportivo Coopsol or Union Comercio
72%
Draw or Union Comercio
63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
16%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
12%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
69%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
33%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
51%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Coopsol at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.02 · 90 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.32 + Union Comercio defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Union Comercio attack 1.33 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Coopsol scores more
37%
level
28%
Union Comercio scores more
35%

Deportivo Coopsol at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Coopsol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Coopsol vs Union Comercio

Union Comercio beat Deportivo Coopsol 4-3 in Segunda División on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Romulo Shaw Cisneros in Huaral.