Union Comercio 2–2 Cesar Vallejo: Result & Stats

Union Comercio

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cesar Vallejo

H. Zeta 75'

H. Pérez 38' (pen)

S. Olaya 90+7' (pen)

P. Guerrero 9'

4/6/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Union Comercio40%

×Draw25%

Cesar Vallejo35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union ComercioExpected goals in this matchCesar Vallejo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.34

Union Comercio

1.45

Cesar Vallejo

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 91 away

1.49

creates per match

1.00

1.69

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Union Comercio

1.49

Cesar Vallejo

1.00

allows per match

Union Comercio

1.69

Cesar Vallejo

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

Cesar Vallejo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw

65%

Union Comercio or Cesar Vallejo

75%

Draw or Cesar Vallejo

60%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+

19%

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals

77%

Union Comercio 2+ goals

42%

Union Comercio 3+ goals

18%

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

74%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

39%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)

53%

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.69 · 71 matches

Cesar Vallejo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 1.49 + Cesar Vallejo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.00 + Union Comercio defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Comercio scores more

40%

level

25%

Cesar Vallejo scores more

35%

Union Comercio at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

P. Guerrero

Cesar Vallejo · F

7.5

Match Events

9'

P. Guerrero↳ J. Madrid

33'

Piero SerraPenalty confirmed

38'

H. PérezPenalty

46'

B. Angulo← J. Navea

55'

Juan Quiñones

66'

Paolo Guerrero

69'

J. Carhuallanqui← K. Sánchez

69'

M. Carranza← H. Pérez

69'

A. Ramírez← O. Noronha

69'

73'

75'

77'

78'

80'

P. da Silva← P. Guerrero

80'

83'

84'

89'

90+7'

S. OlayaPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UnionCesar

Overview

43%Possession57%

7Total Shots10

4Corners4

17Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots10

3On Target6

3Off Target1

1Blocked3

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

304Total Passes415

238Accurate Passes331

78%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Primera División: Union Comercio 2–2 Cesar Vallejo

Union Comercio and Cesar Vallejo drew 2-2 in Primera División on April 6, 2024.

Goals: P. Guerrero (9'), H. Pérez (38' pen), H. Zeta (75'), S. Olaya (90+7' pen).

Cesar Vallejo controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García in Tarapoto.

Union Comercio vs Cesar Vallejo — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Union Comercio 2–2 Cesar Vallejo