Cesar Vallejo 1–0 Union Comercio: Result & Stats

Cesar Vallejo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Union Comercio

J. Vélez 21'

9/13/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 10Estadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Cesar Vallejo59%

×Draw24%

Union Comercio18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cesar VallejoExpected goals in this matchUnion Comercio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.82

Cesar Vallejo

1.72

Union Comercio

0.82

Cesar Vallejo creates 110% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 68 away

1.53

creates per match

0.75

0.89

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Cesar Vallejo

1.53

Union Comercio

0.75

allows per match

Cesar Vallejo

0.89

Union Comercio

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cesar Vallejo+0.00on par

Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesar Vallejo ↓

Union Comercio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cesar Vallejo or draw

82%

Cesar Vallejo or Union Comercio

76%

Draw or Union Comercio

41%

Winning margin

Cesar Vallejo wins by 2+

33%

Union Comercio wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cesar Vallejo 1+ goals

82%

Cesar Vallejo 2+ goals

51%

Cesar Vallejo 3+ goals

25%

Union Comercio 1+ goals

56%

Union Comercio 2+ goals

20%

Union Comercio 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cesar Vallejo (draw refunded)

77%

Union Comercio (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesar Vallejo at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.89 · 94 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.91 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesar Vallejo attack 1.53 + Union Comercio defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.72

Union Comercio attack 0.75 + Cesar Vallejo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cesar Vallejo scores more

59%

level

24%

Union Comercio scores more

18%

Cesar Vallejo at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cesar Vallejo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Carvallo

Cesar Vallejo · G

8.0

Match Events

21'

41'

42'

56'

58'

O. Jiménez← J. Torres

63'

O. Noronha← P. da Silva

78'

Yorleys Mena

78'

D. Vásquez← A. Rodríguez

86'

86'

87'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CesarUnion

Overview

51%Possession49%

7Total Shots13

4Corners2

12Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots13

5On Target6

2Off Target7

0Blocked0

5Inside Box6

2Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

401Total Passes384

282Accurate Passes277

70%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

Primera División: Cesar Vallejo 1–0 Union Comercio

Cesar Vallejo beat Union Comercio 1-0 in Primera División on September 13, 2024.

Goals: J. Vélez (21').

Cesar Vallejo controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Mansiche in Trujillo.

Cesar Vallejo vs Union Comercio — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Cesar Vallejo 1–0 Union Comercio