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Union Comercio vs Atletico Grau — Primera División 2026

Union Comercio
Union Comercio
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
9/1/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Union Comercio42%
×Draw26%
Atletico Grau32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Comercio
1.44
Atletico Grau
1.24

Union Comercio creates 16% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 94 away

creates per match

Union Comercio
1.50
Atletico Grau
0.86

allows per match

Union Comercio
1.62
Atletico Grau
1.38

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par
Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

Atletico Grau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw
68%
Union Comercio or Atletico Grau
74%
Draw or Atletico Grau
58%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+
20%
Atletico Grau wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals
76%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
42%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
18%
Atletico Grau 1+ goals
71%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
35%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)
56%
Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.62 · 74 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 1.50 + Atletico Grau defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atletico Grau attack 0.86 + Union Comercio defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Union Comercio scores more
42%
level
26%
Atletico Grau scores more
32%

Union Comercio at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Union Comercio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Union Comercio 1–2 Atletico Grau

Atletico Grau beat Union Comercio 2-1 in Primera División on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García in Tarapoto.