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Atletico Grau vs Union Comercio — Primera División 2026

Atletico Grau
Atletico Grau
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
10/29/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 19Estadio Municipal de Bernal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Atletico Grau57%
×Draw23%
Union Comercio19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Grau
1.75
Union Comercio
0.91

Atletico Grau creates 92% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 74 away

creates per match

Atletico Grau
1.53
Union Comercio
0.81

allows per match

Atletico Grau
1.01
Union Comercio
1.97

finishing

Atletico Grau+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Grau ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atletico Grau or draw
81%
Atletico Grau or Union Comercio
77%
Draw or Union Comercio
43%

Winning margin

Atletico Grau wins by 2+
32%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atletico Grau 1+ goals
83%
Atletico Grau 2+ goals
52%
Atletico Grau 3+ goals
25%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
60%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
23%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)
75%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Grau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.01 · 92 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.97 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Grau attack 1.53 + Union Comercio defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.75

Union Comercio attack 0.81 + Atletico Grau defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atletico Grau scores more
57%
level
23%
Union Comercio scores more
19%

Atletico Grau at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atletico Grau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Grau vs Union Comercio

Union Comercio beat Atletico Grau 1-0 in Primera División on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Bernal in Humay.