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Union Comercio vs Alianza Lima — Primera División 2026

Union Comercio
Union Comercio
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
2/18/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Union Comercio35%
×Draw26%
Alianza Lima40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Comercio
1.29
Alianza Lima
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 151 away

creates per match

Union Comercio
1.50
Alianza Lima
1.17

allows per match

Union Comercio
1.62
Alianza Lima
1.09

finishing

Union Comercio+0.00on par
Alianza Lima+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Comercio ↓

Alianza Lima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Union Comercio or draw
60%
Union Comercio or Alianza Lima
74%
Draw or Alianza Lima
65%

Winning margin

Union Comercio wins by 2+
15%
Alianza Lima wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Union Comercio 1+ goals
72%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
37%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
14%
Alianza Lima 1+ goals
75%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
41%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Union Comercio (draw refunded)
47%
Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Comercio at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.62 · 74 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Comercio attack 1.50 + Alianza Lima defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Alianza Lima attack 1.17 + Union Comercio defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Union Comercio scores more
35%
level
26%
Alianza Lima scores more
40%

Alianza Lima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Union Comercio 1–3 Alianza Lima

Alianza Lima beat Union Comercio 3-1 in Primera División on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Carlos Vidaurre García in Tarapoto.