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Alianza Lima vs Union Comercio — Primera División 2026

Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
7/31/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Alejandro Villanueva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Alianza Lima63%
×Draw22%
Union Comercio15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alianza Lima
1.90
Union Comercio
0.79

Alianza Lima creates 141% more chances

Season form · 151 home / 74 away

creates per match

Alianza Lima
1.83
Union Comercio
0.81

allows per match

Alianza Lima
0.77
Union Comercio
1.97

finishing

Alianza Lima+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Lima ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alianza Lima or draw
85%
Alianza Lima or Union Comercio
78%
Draw or Union Comercio
37%

Winning margin

Alianza Lima wins by 2+
38%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Alianza Lima 1+ goals
85%
Alianza Lima 2+ goals
56%
Alianza Lima 3+ goals
29%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
55%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
19%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)
81%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Lima at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.77 · 151 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.97 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Lima attack 1.83 + Union Comercio defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.90

Union Comercio attack 0.81 + Alianza Lima defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Alianza Lima scores more
63%
level
22%
Union Comercio scores more
15%

Alianza Lima at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Alianza Lima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Alianza Lima 1–0 Union Comercio

Alianza Lima beat Union Comercio 1-0 in Primera División on July 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Alejandro Villanueva in Lima.