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Union Bremen vs Geestemünde — League #749 2026

Union Bremen
Union Bremen
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Geestemünde
Geestemünde
M. Kirsch 5'
M. Mina 90+2'
S. Atilgan 35'
T. Klowat 23', 21', 17'
10/27/2024League #749League #749 · Bremen - 10BSA Rollsportstadion Platz 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Bremen23%
×Draw18%
Geestemünde58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Bremen
1.67
Geestemünde
2.67

Geestemünde creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Union Bremen
1.67
Geestemünde
2.67

allows per match

Union Bremen
2.67
Geestemünde
1.67

finishing

Union Bremen+0.00on par
Geestemünde+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Bremen ↓

Geestemünde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Union Bremen or draw
42%
Union Bremen or Geestemünde
82%
Draw or Geestemünde
77%

Winning margin

Union Bremen wins by 2+
11%
Geestemünde wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Union Bremen 1+ goals
81%
Union Bremen 2+ goals
50%
Union Bremen 3+ goals
23%
Geestemünde 1+ goals
93%
Geestemünde 2+ goals
74%
Geestemünde 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Union Bremen (draw refunded)
29%
Geestemünde (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Bremen at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Geestemünde away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Bremen attack 1.67 + Geestemünde defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Geestemünde attack 2.67 + Union Bremen defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Union Bremen scores more
23%
level
18%
Geestemünde scores more
58%

Geestemünde at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Geestemünde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
M. Kirsch
17'
T. Klowat
21'
T. Klowat
23'
T. Klowat
35'
S. Atilgan
90+2'
M. Mina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Bremen vs Geestemünde

Geestemünde beat Union Bremen 5-1 in League #749 on October 27, 2024.

Goals: M. Kirsch (5'), T. Klowat (17', 21', 23'), S. Atilgan (35'), M. Mina (90+2').

The match was played at BSA Rollsportstadion Platz 23 in Bremen.