Geestemünde 3–0 Union Bremen: Result & Stats

Geestemünde

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Union Bremen

4/5/2025

League #749 · Bremen - 25SPA Bürgerpark Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Geestemünde56%

×Draw18%

Union Bremen26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GeestemündeExpected goals in this matchUnion Bremen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

2.00

Geestemünde

2.92

Union Bremen

2.00

Geestemünde creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

3.00

creates per match

2.33

1.67

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Geestemünde

3.00

Union Bremen

2.33

allows per match

Geestemünde

1.67

Union Bremen

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Geestemünde+0.00on par

Union Bremen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Geestemünde ↓

Union Bremen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Geestemünde or draw

74%

Geestemünde or Union Bremen

82%

Draw or Union Bremen

44%

Winning margin

Geestemünde wins by 2+

37%

Union Bremen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Geestemünde 1+ goals

94%

Geestemünde 2+ goals

78%

Geestemünde 3+ goals

55%

Union Bremen 1+ goals

86%

Union Bremen 2+ goals

59%

Union Bremen 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Geestemünde (draw refunded)

68%

Union Bremen (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Geestemünde at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Union Bremen away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Geestemünde attack 3.00 + Union Bremen defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.92

Union Bremen attack 2.33 + Geestemünde defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Geestemünde scores more

56%

level

18%

Union Bremen scores more

26%

Geestemünde at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Geestemünde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff