Union Berlin U19 1–4 Sporting Braga U19

Union Berlin U19

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Sporting Braga U19

T. Kramer 10'

João Vasconcelos 51', 44'

Roger Fernandes 37'

Kauan Kelvin 16'

10/3/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Berlin U1921%

×Draw20%

Sporting Braga U1959%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchSporting Braga U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.17

Union Berlin U19

1.21

Sporting Braga U19

2.17

Sporting Braga U19 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

2.00

2.33

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Union Berlin U19

1.67

Sporting Braga U19

2.00

allows per match

Union Berlin U19

2.33

Sporting Braga U19

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Sporting Braga U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Sporting Braga U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw

41%

Union Berlin U19 or Sporting Braga U19

80%

Draw or Sporting Braga U19

79%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

8%

Sporting Braga U19 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

70%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

34%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

12%

Sporting Braga U19 1+ goals

89%

Sporting Braga U19 2+ goals

64%

Sporting Braga U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Sporting Braga U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Sporting Braga U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.67 + Sporting Braga U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sporting Braga U19 attack 2.00 + Union Berlin U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more

21%

level

20%

Sporting Braga U19 scores more

59%

Sporting Braga U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sporting Braga U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

T. Kramer↳ L. Prosche

12'

F. Hoffmann

16'

Kauan Kelvin↳ Guilherme Barbosa

29'

L. Jurschik← F. Hoffmann

37'

Roger Fernandes↳ João Vasconcelos

44'

Vasconcelos

44'

João Vasconcelos

45+1'

L. Asanji

46'

I. Ciobanu← B. Kalaycı

51'

João Vasconcelos↳ Kauan Kelvin

65'

J. Grunwald

72'

K. Ojo← J. Grunwald

72'

Dinis Rodrigues← Kauan Kelvin

72'

João Faria← Diego Rodrigues

79'

Rúben Furtado← João Vasconcelos

83'

M. Alkan← C. Ackermann

83'

S. Tabuaa← T. Kramer

86'

Rodrigo Abreu← Guilherme Barbosa

86'

Luís Fernandes← Afonso Duarte

Union

Sporting

1

5

4

3

2

10

⚽2A

▼

Vasconcel

8

▼

Rodrigues

7

▼

Duarte

6

A

▼

Barbosa

11

⚽

Fernandes

9

⚽A

▼

1

21

2

19

▼

Hoffmann

16

▼

Grunwald

4

▼

Ackermann

14

Ogbemudia

25

A

Prosche

8

Engelbret

17

⚽

▼

Kramer

9

▼

Kalaycı

Manager: M. Grote

29'▲L. Jurschik←▼F. Hoffmann

46'▲I. Ciobanu←▼B. Kalaycı

72'▲K. Ojo←▼J. Grunwald

83'▲M. Alkan←▼C. Ackermann

83'▲S. Tabuaa←▼T. Kramer

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

11Jurschik20Ciobanu7Ojo23Alkan15Tabuaa12Rodtnick27Ibrahimi

Manager: Pedro Pires

72'▲Dinis Rodrigues←▼Kauan Kelvin

72'▲João Faria←▼Diego Rodrigues

79'▲Rúben Furtado←▼João Vasconcelos

86'▲Rodrigo Abreu←▼Guilherme Barbosa

86'▲Luís Fernandes←▼Afonso Duarte

Sporting Braga U19 substitutes

18Rodrigues15Faria17Furtado16Abreu14Fernandes13Sá12Žnuderl