Sporting Braga U19 1–0 Union Berlin U19

Sporting Braga U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Union Berlin U19

João Vasconcelos 31'

11/29/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Cidade Desportiva SC Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sporting Braga U1957%

×Draw37%

Union Berlin U196%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Braga U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.17

Sporting Braga U19

1.00

Union Berlin U19

0.17

Sporting Braga U19 creates 488% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

0.33

0.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sporting Braga U19

0.67

Union Berlin U19

0.33

allows per match

Sporting Braga U19

0.00

Union Berlin U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Braga U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under89
Over11

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No90
Yes10

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Braga U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–031%

0–15%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–031%

1–15%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–13%

2–20%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (31%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

69%31%1.5

33%67%2.5

11%89%3.5

3%97%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Sporting Braga U19 or draw

94%

Sporting Braga U19 or Union Berlin U19

63%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

43%

Winning margin

Sporting Braga U19 wins by 2+

23%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Sporting Braga U19 1+ goals

63%

Sporting Braga U19 2+ goals

26%

Sporting Braga U19 3+ goals

8%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

16%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

1%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Sporting Braga U19 (draw refunded)

90%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

5%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Braga U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Braga U19 attack 0.67 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Union Berlin U19 attack 0.33 + Sporting Braga U19 defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sporting Braga U19 scores more

57%

level

37%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

6%

Sporting Braga U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sporting Braga U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

J. Rodrigues

31'

João Vasconcelos↳ Kauan Kelvin

43'

L. Ibrahimi

59'

A. Markgraf← L. Prosche

59'

T. Schleinitz← B. Kalaycı

74'

J. Kortebusch← L. Ibrahimi

74'

K. Ojo← I. Ciobanu

77'

Nuno Patrício← Dinis Rodrigues

77'

Alex Sousa← Rúben Furtado

77'

Ivo Lopes← Diego Rodrigues

79'

J. Carvalho

82'

M. Alkan← N. Engelbreth

83'

84'

86'

86'

88'

90+1'

90+6'

90+3'

Rodrigo Abreu← Kauan Kelvin

90+3'

Samuel Sousa← Guilherme Costa

Sporting

Union

1

21

16

4

25

▼

Prosche

6

Kemlein

8

▼

Engelbret

22

Friedrich

9

▼

Kalaycı

27

▼

Ibrahimi

20

▼

1

5

4

3

2

▼

Costa

10

⚽

Vasconcel

8

▼

Rodrigues

6

Barbosa

9

▼

Rodrigues

7

A

▼

Kelvin

11

▼

Furtado

Manager: Pedro Pires

77'▲Nuno Patrício←▼Dinis Rodrigues

77'▲Alex Sousa←▼Rúben Furtado

77'▲Ivo Lopes←▼Diego Rodrigues

90+3'▲Rodrigo Abreu←▼Kauan Kelvin

90+3'▲Samuel Sousa←▼Guilherme Costa

Sporting Braga U19 substitutes

18Patrício17Sousa15Lopes16Abreu14Sousa13Salvador12Amorim

Manager: M. Grote

59'▲A. Markgraf←▼L. Prosche

59'▲T. Schleinitz←▼B. Kalaycı

74'▲J. Kortebusch←▼L. Ibrahimi

74'▲K. Ojo←▼I. Ciobanu

82'▲M. Alkan←▼N. Engelbreth

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

3Markgraf10Schleinitz23Kortebusch7Ojo13Alkan26Wiehe12Arslanogullari

Match Recap: Sporting Braga U19 vs Union Berlin U19

Sporting Braga U19 beat Union Berlin U19 1-0 in UEFA Youth League on November 29, 2023.

Goals: João Vasconcelos (31').

The match was played at Cidade Desportiva SC Braga in Braga.

Sporting Braga U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sporting Braga U19 vs Union Berlin U19