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Union Berlin U19 vs Real Madrid U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Union Berlin U19
Union Berlin U19
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Madrid U19
Real Madrid U19
12/12/2023UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Berlin U1920%
×Draw19%
Real Madrid U1961%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin U19
1.35
Real Madrid U19
2.45

Real Madrid U19 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 25 away

creates per match

Union Berlin U19
1.67
Real Madrid U19
2.56

allows per match

Union Berlin U19
2.33
Real Madrid U19
1.04

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par
Real Madrid U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Real Madrid U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw
39%
Union Berlin U19 or Real Madrid U19
81%
Draw or Real Madrid U19
80%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+
8%
Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals
74%
Union Berlin U19 2+ goals
39%
Union Berlin U19 3+ goals
15%
Real Madrid U19 1+ goals
91%
Real Madrid U19 2+ goals
70%
Real Madrid U19 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
25%
Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Real Madrid U19 away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.67 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.35

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.56 + Union Berlin U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more
20%
level
19%
Real Madrid U19 scores more
61%

Real Madrid U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Youth League: Union Berlin U19 0–2 Real Madrid U19

Real Madrid U19 beat Union Berlin U19 2-0 in UEFA Youth League on December 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin.