Real Madrid U19 2–1 Union Berlin U19

Real Madrid U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Union Berlin U19

César Palacios 76'

Hugo de Llanos 55'

J. Friedrich 43'

9/20/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Madrid U1966%

×Draw21%

Union Berlin U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.79

Real Madrid U19

2.00

Union Berlin U19

0.79

Real Madrid U19 creates 153% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 3 away

2.67

creates per match

0.33

1.25

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Real Madrid U19

2.67

Union Berlin U19

0.33

allows per match

Real Madrid U19

1.25

Union Berlin U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Madrid U19 or draw

86%

Real Madrid U19 or Union Berlin U19

79%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

34%

Winning margin

Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+

41%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Real Madrid U19 1+ goals

86%

Real Madrid U19 2+ goals

59%

Real Madrid U19 3+ goals

32%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

55%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

19%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.67 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Union Berlin U19 attack 0.33 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Real Madrid U19 scores more

66%

level

21%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

14%

Real Madrid U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

L. Prosche

32'

N. Engelbreth

34'

F. Hoffmann← L. Prosche

38'

F. Hoffmann

43'

J. Friedrich

45+3'

V. Aliji

46'

Chema Andrés← Nico Sánchez

55'

Hugo de Llanos

60'

T. Ackermann

67'

Baba← Daniel Yañez

68'

Y. Enriquez

71'

M. A. Moran

73'

L. Ibrahimi← V. Aliji

73'

K. Ojo← J. Friedrich

76'

César Palacios↳ Hugo de Llanos

81'

Pol Duran← Paulo Iago

82'

T. Kramer

86'

I. Bravo

89'

M. Serrano

89'

Álvaro Ginés← Hugo de Llanos

89'

B. Kalaycı← F. Hoffmann

Real

Union

1

21

2

16

4

14

25

▼

Prosche

18

▼

Aliji

8

Engelbret

22

⚽

▼

17

25

5

3

4

8

22

⚽

Palacios

11

⚽A

▼

Llanos

24

▼

Iago

18

▼

Sánchez

9

Bravo

39

▼

Yañez

Manager: Arbeloa

46'▲Chema Andrés←▼Nico Sánchez

67'▲Baba←▼Daniel Yañez

81'▲Pol Duran←▼Paulo Iago

89'▲Álvaro Ginés←▼Hugo de Llanos

Real Madrid U19 substitutes

6Andrés19Baba28Duran20Ginés1Quetglás33Serrano12Nkoghe

Manager: M. Grote

34'▲F. Hoffmann←▼L. Prosche

73'▲L. Ibrahimi←▼V. Aliji

73'▲K. Ojo←▼J. Friedrich

89'▲B. Kalaycı←▼F. Hoffmann

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

19Hoffmann27Ibrahimi7Ojo9Kalaycı3Markgraf23Alkan12Rodtnick

UEFA Youth League: Real Madrid U19 2–1 Union Berlin U19

Real Madrid U19 beat Union Berlin U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on September 20, 2023.

Goals: J. Friedrich (43'), Hugo de Llanos (55'), César Palacios (76').

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.

Real Madrid U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Real Madrid U19 2–1 Union Berlin U19