Union Berlin U19 1–3 Karlsruher SC U19

Union Berlin U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Karlsruher SC U19

Suheib-Elias Ali 45'

E. Laghrissi 90+4'

H. Arbai 45+2'

T. Schunck 4' (pen)

3/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group A - 5Bruno-Bürgel-Weg Kunstrasen 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Union Berlin U1947%

×Draw22%

Karlsruher SC U1931%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchKarlsruher SC U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.57

Union Berlin U19

1.96

Karlsruher SC U19

1.57

Union Berlin U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 74 away

2.32

creates per match

1.73

1.41

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Union Berlin U19

2.32

Karlsruher SC U19

1.73

allows per match

Union Berlin U19

1.41

Karlsruher SC U19

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Karlsruher SC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Karlsruher SC U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw

69%

Union Berlin U19 or Karlsruher SC U19

78%

Draw or Karlsruher SC U19

53%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

26%

Karlsruher SC U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

86%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

58%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

31%

Karlsruher SC U19 1+ goals

79%

Karlsruher SC U19 2+ goals

46%

Karlsruher SC U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Karlsruher SC U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.41 · 71 matches

Karlsruher SC U19 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.32 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.96

Karlsruher SC U19 attack 1.73 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more

47%

level

22%

Karlsruher SC U19 scores more

31%

Union Berlin U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

T. SchunckPenalty

24'

I. Ciobanu← T. Blaszczak

45'

Suheib-Elias Ali

45+2'

H. Arbai

46'

Ahmad Badran← B. Wilp

73'

T. Sakoufakis← A. Riedel

73'

S. Guggenbühler← K. Çırpan

79'

E. Laghrissi← M. Şen

87'

M. Mutz← D. Zor

87'

L. Batolov← T. Schunck

90+4'

E. Laghrissi

Union

Karlsruher

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Grote

24'▲I. Ciobanu←▼T. Blaszczak

46'▲Ahmad Badran←▼B. Wilp

73'▲T. Sakoufakis←▼A. Riedel

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

CiobanuBadranSakoufakisLatzkeRodtnickKoppKischke

Manager: R. Kettemann

73'▲S. Guggenbühler←▼K. Çırpan

79'▲E. Laghrissi←▼M. Şen

87'▲M. Mutz←▼D. Zor

87'▲L. Batolov←▼T. Schunck

Karlsruher SC U19 substitutes

GuggenbühlerLaghrissiMutzBatolovGünesRegaMüller