Karlsruher SC U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Karlsruher SC U1956%
Union Berlin U1923%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Karlsruher SC U19 creates 63% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over68
- Under32
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Karlsruher SC U19 ↓
Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Karlsruher SC U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches
Union Berlin U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Karlsruher SC U19 attack 2.33 + Union Berlin U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17
Union Berlin U19 attack 2.00 + Karlsruher SC U19 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Karlsruher SC U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Karlsruher SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Karlsruher SC U19 host Union Berlin U19 on Saturday, 9 November 2024 at 11:00. The match is part of the DFB Junioren Pokal 2020/2021 season.
Karlsruher SC U19 2 – 1 Union Berlin U19
Karlsruher SC U19 beat Union Berlin U19 2-1 in DFB Junioren Pokal on November 9, 2024.
Goals: K. Cirpan (6'), N. Behr (17'), M. Gray (76').
The match was played at Arthur-Beier-Stadion im Wildparkareal in Karlsruhe.