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Union Berlin U19 vs Hoffenheim U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Union Berlin U19
Union Berlin U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Hoffenheim U19
Hoffenheim U19advanced
M. Gray 73'
G. Mewes 56'
D. Creța 28'
J. Fields 22'
M. Moore 11'
8/15/2025DFB Junioren PokalDFB Junioren Pokal · Round of 64Stadion An der Wuhlheide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Union Berlin U1914%
×Draw15%
Hoffenheim U1971%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin U19
1.38
Hoffenheim U19
3.10

Hoffenheim U19 creates 125% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Union Berlin U19
2.00
Hoffenheim U19
3.88

allows per match

Union Berlin U19
2.33
Hoffenheim U19
0.75

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par
Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Hoffenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw
29%
Union Berlin U19 or Hoffenheim U19
85%
Draw or Hoffenheim U19
86%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+
6%
Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals
75%
Union Berlin U19 2+ goals
40%
Union Berlin U19 3+ goals
16%
Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals
95%
Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals
81%
Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals
58%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
17%
Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Hoffenheim U19 away — creates 3.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.00 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.88 + Union Berlin U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 3.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more
14%
level
15%
Hoffenheim U19 scores more
71%

Hoffenheim U19 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Moore
22'
J. Fields
28'
D. Creța
56'
G. Mewes
73'
M. Gray
Union
Hoffenheim
M. Grote
Manager: M. Grote
T. Nubbemeyer
Manager: T. Nubbemeyer

Match Recap: Union Berlin U19 vs Hoffenheim U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat Union Berlin U19 3-2 in DFB Junioren Pokal on August 15, 2025.

Goals: M. Moore (11'), J. Fields (22'), D. Creța (28'), G. Mewes (56'), M. Gray (73').

The match was played at Stadion An der Wuhlheide in Berlin.