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Hoffenheim U19 vs Union Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Hoffenheim U19
Hoffenheim U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Berlin U19
Union Berlin U19
3/21/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Hoffenheim U1955%
×Draw19%
Union Berlin U1926%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoffenheim U19
2.44
Union Berlin U19
1.66

Hoffenheim U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 76 away

creates per match

Hoffenheim U19
3.17
Union Berlin U19
1.95

allows per match

Hoffenheim U19
1.36
Union Berlin U19
1.70

finishing

Hoffenheim U19+0.00on par
Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoffenheim U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Hoffenheim U19 or draw
74%
Hoffenheim U19 or Union Berlin U19
81%
Draw or Union Berlin U19
45%

Winning margin

Hoffenheim U19 wins by 2+
34%
Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hoffenheim U19 1+ goals
91%
Hoffenheim U19 2+ goals
70%
Hoffenheim U19 3+ goals
43%
Union Berlin U19 1+ goals
81%
Union Berlin U19 2+ goals
49%
Union Berlin U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hoffenheim U19 (draw refunded)
68%
Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoffenheim U19 at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.36 · 78 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoffenheim U19 attack 3.17 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.44

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.95 + Hoffenheim U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hoffenheim U19 scores more
55%
level
19%
Union Berlin U19 scores more
26%

Hoffenheim U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hoffenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Hoffenheim
Union
T. Nubbemeyer
Manager: T. Nubbemeyer
M. Grote
Manager: M. Grote

U19 Bundesliga: Hoffenheim U19 3–1 Union Berlin U19

Hoffenheim U19 beat Union Berlin U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 21, 2026.