Union Berlin U19 3–0 Hamburger SV U19

Union Berlin U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hamburger SV U19

4/21/2024

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 23Stadion An der Wuhlheide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Union Berlin U1948%

×Draw21%

Hamburger SV U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Union Berlin U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.70

Union Berlin U19

2.15

Hamburger SV U19

1.70

Union Berlin U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 70 away

2.38

creates per match

1.97

1.43

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Union Berlin U19

2.38

Hamburger SV U19

1.97

allows per match

Union Berlin U19

1.43

Hamburger SV U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw

69%

Union Berlin U19 or Hamburger SV U19

79%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

52%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

28%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

88%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

63%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

36%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

82%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

51%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.43 · 65 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.91 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.38 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.15

Hamburger SV U19 attack 1.97 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more

48%

level

21%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

31%

Union Berlin U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff