Hamburger SV U19 2–2 Union Berlin U19

Hamburger SV U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Union Berlin U19

12/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 14Paul-Hauenschild-Plätze 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Hamburger SV U1942%

×Draw21%

Union Berlin U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.94

Hamburger SV U19

2.05

Union Berlin U19

1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 70 away

2.42

creates per match

2.03

1.84

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.42

Union Berlin U19

2.03

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.84

Union Berlin U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

63%

Hamburger SV U19 or Union Berlin U19

79%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

58%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

23%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

87%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

61%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

33%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

86%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

58%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.69 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.42 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.05

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.03 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

42%

level

21%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

37%

Hamburger SV U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff