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Union Berlin U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Union Berlin U19
Union Berlin U19
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Chemnitzer FC U19
Chemnitzer FC U19
G. Mewes 79'
D. Bogdanov 52', 35', 5'
A. Mensah 79'
N. Tänzer 73'
J. Ullmann 23'
8/24/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 4Stadion An der Wuhlheide

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Union Berlin U1962%
×Draw18%
Chemnitzer FC U1920%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Berlin U19
2.55
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.40

Union Berlin U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 52 away

creates per match

Union Berlin U19
2.32
Chemnitzer FC U19
1.38

allows per match

Union Berlin U19
1.41
Chemnitzer FC U19
2.79

finishing

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par
Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Berlin U19 ↓

Chemnitzer FC U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Union Berlin U19 or draw
80%
Union Berlin U19 or Chemnitzer FC U19
82%
Draw or Chemnitzer FC U19
38%

Winning margin

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+
41%
Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals
92%
Union Berlin U19 2+ goals
72%
Union Berlin U19 3+ goals
46%
Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals
75%
Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals
41%
Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)
76%
Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Berlin U19 at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.41 · 71 matches

Chemnitzer FC U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Berlin U19 attack 2.32 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.55

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.38 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Union Berlin U19 scores more
62%
level
18%
Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more
20%

Union Berlin U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
D. Bogdanov
23'
J. Ullmann
35'
D. Bogdanov
52'
D. Bogdanov
73'
N. Tänzer
79'
G. Mewes
79'
A. Mensah
Union
Chemnitzer
M. Grote
Manager: M. Grote
T. Wappler
Manager: T. Wappler

Match Recap: Union Berlin U19 vs Chemnitzer FC U19

Union Berlin U19 beat Chemnitzer FC U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on August 24, 2025.

Goals: D. Bogdanov (5', 35', 52'), J. Ullmann (23'), N. Tänzer (73'), G. Mewes (79'), A. Mensah (79').

The match was played at Stadion An der Wuhlheide in Berlin.