Chemnitzer FC U19 0–2 Union Berlin U19

Chemnitzer FC U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Union Berlin U19

M. Sanogo 67'

M. Somnitz 58' (pen)

4/9/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 17Stadion im Sportforum Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chemnitzer FC U1930%

×Draw21%

Union Berlin U1949%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chemnitzer FC U19Expected goals in this matchUnion Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

2.05

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.57

Union Berlin U19

2.05

Union Berlin U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 76 away

1.45

creates per match

1.95

2.15

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

1.45

Union Berlin U19

1.95

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC U19

2.15

Union Berlin U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chemnitzer FC U19+0.00on par

Union Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC U19 ↓

Union Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC U19 or draw

51%

Chemnitzer FC U19 or Union Berlin U19

79%

Draw or Union Berlin U19

70%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC U19 wins by 2+

14%

Union Berlin U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC U19 1+ goals

79%

Chemnitzer FC U19 2+ goals

46%

Chemnitzer FC U19 3+ goals

21%

Union Berlin U19 1+ goals

87%

Union Berlin U19 2+ goals

61%

Union Berlin U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Union Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.15 · 53 matches

Union Berlin U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.70 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC U19 attack 1.45 + Union Berlin U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.57

Union Berlin U19 attack 1.95 + Chemnitzer FC U19 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chemnitzer FC U19 scores more

30%

level

21%

Union Berlin U19 scores more

49%

Union Berlin U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Union Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

M. SomnitzPenalty

67'

67'

72'

78'

79'

82'

W. Noack← N. Kaus

86'

M. Verhülsdonk← M. Schreiber

86'

G. Kamdem← M. Sanogo

86'

T. Kramer← A. Jahaj

Chemnitzer

Union

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Stephan

67'▲F. Heidler←▼Y. Luib

79'▲C. Boldt←▼T. Seidel

86'▲M. Verhülsdonk←▼M. Schreiber

Chemnitzer FC U19 substitutes

HeidlerBoldtVerhülsdonkPawlettaWolterWeidauerRiesen

Manager: A. Vilk

72'▲B. Gögce←▼F. Ewald

82'▲W. Noack←▼N. Kaus

86'▲G. Kamdem←▼M. Sanogo

86'▲T. Kramer←▼A. Jahaj

Union Berlin U19 substitutes

GögceNoackKamdemKramerPetzsch