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Union Atl. Falcon vs Llaneros de Guanare — Segunda División 2018

Union Atl. Falcon
Union Atl. Falcon
FT
0 – 1
Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
3/17/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 6Estadio Peninsular Pedro Conde (Punto Fijo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Union Atl. Falcon44%
×Draw25%
Llaneros de Guanare31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Atl. Falcon
1.58
Llaneros de Guanare
1.28

Union Atl. Falcon creates 23% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 43 away

creates per match

Union Atl. Falcon
1.63
Llaneros de Guanare
0.93

allows per match

Union Atl. Falcon
1.63
Llaneros de Guanare
1.53

finishing

Union Atl. Falcon+0.00on par
Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Atl. Falcon ↓

Llaneros de Guanare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Union Atl. Falcon or draw
69%
Union Atl. Falcon or Llaneros de Guanare
75%
Draw or Llaneros de Guanare
56%

Winning margin

Union Atl. Falcon wins by 2+
22%
Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Union Atl. Falcon 1+ goals
79%
Union Atl. Falcon 2+ goals
47%
Union Atl. Falcon 3+ goals
21%
Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
72%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
37%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Union Atl. Falcon (draw refunded)
59%
Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Atl. Falcon at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Llaneros de Guanare away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.53 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Atl. Falcon attack 1.63 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Llaneros de Guanare attack 0.93 + Union Atl. Falcon defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Union Atl. Falcon scores more
44%
level
25%
Llaneros de Guanare scores more
31%

Union Atl. Falcon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Union Atl. Falcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Atl. Falcon vs Llaneros de Guanare

Llaneros de Guanare beat Union Atl. Falcon 1-0 in Segunda División on March 17, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Peninsular Pedro Conde (Punto Fijo).