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Llaneros de Guanare vs Union Atl. Falcon — Segunda División 2018

Llaneros de Guanare
Llaneros de Guanare
FT
5 – 1
Union Atl. Falcon
Union Atl. Falcon
5/22/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 15Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Llaneros de Guanare51%
×Draw24%
Union Atl. Falcon25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llaneros de Guanare
1.73
Union Atl. Falcon
1.14

Llaneros de Guanare creates 52% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 15 away

creates per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.33
Union Atl. Falcon
0.80

allows per match

Llaneros de Guanare
1.48
Union Atl. Falcon
2.13

finishing

Llaneros de Guanare+0.00on par
Union Atl. Falcon+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llaneros de Guanare ↓

Union Atl. Falcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Llaneros de Guanare or draw
75%
Llaneros de Guanare or Union Atl. Falcon
76%
Draw or Union Atl. Falcon
49%

Winning margin

Llaneros de Guanare wins by 2+
28%
Union Atl. Falcon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Llaneros de Guanare 1+ goals
82%
Llaneros de Guanare 2+ goals
52%
Llaneros de Guanare 3+ goals
25%
Union Atl. Falcon 1+ goals
68%
Union Atl. Falcon 2+ goals
32%
Union Atl. Falcon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Llaneros de Guanare (draw refunded)
67%
Union Atl. Falcon (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llaneros de Guanare at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 42 matches

Union Atl. Falcon away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llaneros de Guanare attack 1.33 + Union Atl. Falcon defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Union Atl. Falcon attack 0.80 + Llaneros de Guanare defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Llaneros de Guanare scores more
51%
level
24%
Union Atl. Falcon scores more
25%

Llaneros de Guanare at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Llaneros de Guanare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Llaneros de Guanare vs Union Atl. Falcon

Llaneros de Guanare beat Union Atl. Falcon 5-1 in Segunda División on May 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto (Guanare).