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Union Atl. Falcon vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia — Segunda División 2018

Union Atl. Falcon
Union Atl. Falcon
FT
3 – 3
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
4/11/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 2Estadio Peninsular Pedro Conde (Punto Fijo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Union Atl. Falcon50%
×Draw23%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Atl. Falcon
1.84
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.32

Union Atl. Falcon creates 39% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 44 away

creates per match

Union Atl. Falcon
1.63
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.02

allows per match

Union Atl. Falcon
1.63
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
2.05

finishing

Union Atl. Falcon+0.00on par
Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Atl. Falcon ↓

Deportivo JBL del Zulia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Union Atl. Falcon or draw
72%
Union Atl. Falcon or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
77%
Draw or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
50%

Winning margin

Union Atl. Falcon wins by 2+
27%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Union Atl. Falcon 1+ goals
84%
Union Atl. Falcon 2+ goals
55%
Union Atl. Falcon 3+ goals
28%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Union Atl. Falcon (draw refunded)
64%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Atl. Falcon at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Atl. Falcon attack 1.63 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.84

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.02 + Union Atl. Falcon defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Atl. Falcon scores more
50%
level
23%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
28%

Union Atl. Falcon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Atl. Falcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Union Atl. Falcon vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia

Union Atl. Falcon and Deportivo JBL del Zulia drew 3-3 in Segunda División on April 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Peninsular Pedro Conde (Punto Fijo).