Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportivo JBL del Zulia vs Union Atl. Falcon — Segunda División 2018

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
FT
4 – 1
Union Atl. Falcon
Union Atl. Falcon
7/28/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 2Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia51%
×Draw23%
Union Atl. Falcon26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.77
Union Atl. Falcon
1.20

Deportivo JBL del Zulia creates 48% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

creates per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.42
Union Atl. Falcon
0.80

allows per match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.60
Union Atl. Falcon
2.13

finishing

Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par
Union Atl. Falcon+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo JBL del Zulia ↓

Union Atl. Falcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Deportivo JBL del Zulia or draw
74%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia or Union Atl. Falcon
77%
Draw or Union Atl. Falcon
49%

Winning margin

Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
28%
Union Atl. Falcon wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
83%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
53%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
26%
Union Atl. Falcon 1+ goals
70%
Union Atl. Falcon 2+ goals
34%
Union Atl. Falcon 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
66%
Union Atl. Falcon (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Union Atl. Falcon away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.42 + Union Atl. Falcon defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.77

Union Atl. Falcon attack 0.80 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
51%
level
23%
Union Atl. Falcon scores more
26%

Deportivo JBL del Zulia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo JBL del Zulia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Deportivo JBL del Zulia 4–1 Union Atl. Falcon

Deportivo JBL del Zulia beat Union Atl. Falcon 4-1 in Segunda División on July 28, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio José Encarnación Pachencho Romero (Maracaibo).