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Unión Adarve vs Torrejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Unión Adarve
Unión Adarve
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Torrejón
Torrejón
3/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 25Centro Deportivo Municipal Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Unión Adarve52%
×Draw24%
Torrejón24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Adarve
1.73
Torrejón
1.11

Unión Adarve creates 56% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 115 away

creates per match

Unión Adarve
1.96
Torrejón
1.25

allows per match

Unión Adarve
0.98
Torrejón
1.50

finishing

Unión Adarve+0.00on par
Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Adarve ↓

Torrejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Unión Adarve or draw
76%
Unión Adarve or Torrejón
76%
Draw or Torrejón
48%

Winning margin

Unión Adarve wins by 2+
28%
Torrejón wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Unión Adarve 1+ goals
82%
Unión Adarve 2+ goals
52%
Unión Adarve 3+ goals
25%
Torrejón 1+ goals
67%
Torrejón 2+ goals
30%
Torrejón 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Unión Adarve (draw refunded)
68%
Torrejón (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Adarve at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Adarve attack 1.96 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.73

Torrejón attack 1.25 + Unión Adarve defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Unión Adarve scores more
52%
level
24%
Torrejón scores more
24%

Unión Adarve at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Unión Adarve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Unión Adarve vs Torrejón

Unión Adarve and Torrejón drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Municipal Vicente del Bosque in Madrid.