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Torrejón vs Unión Adarve — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Torrejón
Torrejón
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unión Adarve
Unión Adarve
1/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 14Estadio Las Veredillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Torrejón44%
×Draw27%
Unión Adarve29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrejón
1.35
Unión Adarve
1.05

Torrejón creates 29% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 45 away

creates per match

Torrejón
1.43
Unión Adarve
1.18

allows per match

Torrejón
0.93
Unión Adarve
1.27

finishing

Torrejón+0.00on par
Unión Adarve+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrejón ↓

Unión Adarve →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torrejón or draw
71%
Torrejón or Unión Adarve
73%
Draw or Unión Adarve
56%

Winning margin

Torrejón wins by 2+
20%
Unión Adarve wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Torrejón 1+ goals
74%
Torrejón 2+ goals
39%
Torrejón 3+ goals
15%
Unión Adarve 1+ goals
65%
Unión Adarve 2+ goals
28%
Unión Adarve 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Torrejón (draw refunded)
60%
Unión Adarve (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrejón at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.93 · 115 matches

Unión Adarve away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrejón attack 1.43 + Unión Adarve defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Unión Adarve attack 1.18 + Torrejón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torrejón scores more
44%
level
27%
Unión Adarve scores more
29%

Torrejón at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torrejón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Torrejón 0–0 Unión Adarve

Torrejón and Unión Adarve drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Las Veredillas in Torrejón de Ardoz.