Unión Adarve 3–1 Moratalaz: Result & Stats

Unión Adarve

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Moratalaz

3/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Campo García de la Mata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Unión Adarve54%

×Draw24%

Moratalaz22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unión AdarveExpected goals in this matchMoratalaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.04

Unión Adarve

1.75

Moratalaz

1.04

Unión Adarve creates 68% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 48 away

1.96

creates per match

1.10

0.98

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Unión Adarve

1.96

Moratalaz

1.10

allows per match

Unión Adarve

0.98

Moratalaz

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unión Adarve+0.00on par

Moratalaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Adarve ↓

Moratalaz →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Unión Adarve or draw

78%

Unión Adarve or Moratalaz

76%

Draw or Moratalaz

46%

Winning margin

Unión Adarve wins by 2+

30%

Moratalaz wins by 2+

Team goals

Unión Adarve 1+ goals

83%

Unión Adarve 2+ goals

52%

Unión Adarve 3+ goals

25%

Moratalaz 1+ goals

65%

Moratalaz 2+ goals

28%

Moratalaz 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Unión Adarve (draw refunded)

71%

Moratalaz (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Unión Adarve at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.98 · 45 matches

Moratalaz away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Unión Adarve attack 1.96 + Moratalaz defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.75

Moratalaz attack 1.10 + Unión Adarve defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Unión Adarve scores more

54%

level

24%

Moratalaz scores more

22%

Unión Adarve at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Unión Adarve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff