Moratalaz 1–1 Unión Adarve: Result & Stats

Moratalaz

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Unión Adarve

1/26/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Campo Dehesa de Moratalaz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Moratalaz38%

×Draw27%

Unión Adarve35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MoratalazExpected goals in this matchUnión Adarve

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.23

Moratalaz

1.29

Unión Adarve

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 45 away

1.31

creates per match

1.18

1.29

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Moratalaz

1.31

Unión Adarve

1.18

allows per match

Moratalaz

1.29

Unión Adarve

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Moratalaz+0.00on par

Unión Adarve+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moratalaz ↓

Unión Adarve →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Moratalaz or draw

65%

Moratalaz or Unión Adarve

73%

Draw or Unión Adarve

62%

Winning margin

Moratalaz wins by 2+

17%

Unión Adarve wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Moratalaz 1+ goals

72%

Moratalaz 2+ goals

37%

Moratalaz 3+ goals

14%

Unión Adarve 1+ goals

71%

Unión Adarve 2+ goals

35%

Unión Adarve 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Moratalaz (draw refunded)

52%

Unión Adarve (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Moratalaz at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Unión Adarve away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Moratalaz attack 1.31 + Unión Adarve defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Unión Adarve attack 1.18 + Moratalaz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Moratalaz scores more

38%

level

27%

Unión Adarve scores more

35%

Moratalaz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Moratalaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff