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Union Abong-Mbang vs Tonnerre — Elite Two 2020

Union Abong-Mbang
Union Abong-Mbang
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
4/30/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Union Abong-Mbang51%
×Draw28%
Tonnerre21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Abong-Mbang
1.35
Tonnerre
0.75

Union Abong-Mbang creates 80% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 42 away

creates per match

Union Abong-Mbang
1.33
Tonnerre
1.02

allows per match

Union Abong-Mbang
0.48
Tonnerre
1.36

finishing

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Abong-Mbang ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Union Abong-Mbang or draw
79%
Union Abong-Mbang or Tonnerre
72%
Draw or Tonnerre
49%

Winning margin

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+
25%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals
74%
Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals
39%
Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals
15%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
53%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
17%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)
71%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Abong-Mbang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Abong-Mbang attack 1.33 + Tonnerre defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tonnerre attack 1.02 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Union Abong-Mbang scores more
51%
level
28%
Tonnerre scores more
21%

Union Abong-Mbang at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Union Abong-Mbang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Union Abong-Mbang 2–0 Tonnerre

Union Abong-Mbang beat Tonnerre 2-0 in Elite Two on April 30, 2025.