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Tonnerre vs Union Abong-Mbang — Elite Two 2020

Tonnerre
Tonnerre
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Union Abong-Mbang
Union Abong-Mbang
2/8/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Tonnerre45%
×Draw27%
Union Abong-Mbang28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tonnerre
1.41
Union Abong-Mbang
1.04

Tonnerre creates 36% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 20 away

creates per match

Tonnerre
1.46
Union Abong-Mbang
0.95

allows per match

Tonnerre
1.13
Union Abong-Mbang
1.35

finishing

Tonnerre+0.00on par
Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tonnerre ↓

Union Abong-Mbang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tonnerre or draw
72%
Tonnerre or Union Abong-Mbang
73%
Draw or Union Abong-Mbang
55%

Winning margin

Tonnerre wins by 2+
22%
Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tonnerre 1+ goals
76%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
41%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
17%
Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals
65%
Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals
28%
Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tonnerre (draw refunded)
62%
Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tonnerre at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 46 matches

Union Abong-Mbang away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tonnerre attack 1.46 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Union Abong-Mbang attack 0.95 + Tonnerre defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tonnerre scores more
45%
level
27%
Union Abong-Mbang scores more
28%

Tonnerre at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tonnerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Tonnerre 1–1 Union Abong-Mbang

Tonnerre and Union Abong-Mbang drew 1-1 in Elite Two on February 8, 2025.