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Union Abong-Mbang vs Eding Sport — Elite Two 2020

Union Abong-Mbang
Union Abong-Mbang
FT
0 – 2
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
3/23/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Union Abong-Mbang50%
×Draw29%
Eding Sport21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Union Abong-Mbang
1.29
Eding Sport
0.71

Union Abong-Mbang creates 82% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 28 away

creates per match

Union Abong-Mbang
1.33
Eding Sport
0.93

allows per match

Union Abong-Mbang
0.48
Eding Sport
1.25

finishing

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Union Abong-Mbang ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Union Abong-Mbang or draw
79%
Union Abong-Mbang or Eding Sport
71%
Draw or Eding Sport
50%

Winning margin

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+
24%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals
72%
Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals
37%
Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals
14%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
51%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
16%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)
71%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Union Abong-Mbang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.48 · 21 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Union Abong-Mbang attack 1.33 + Eding Sport defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Eding Sport attack 0.93 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Union Abong-Mbang scores more
50%
level
29%
Eding Sport scores more
21%

Union Abong-Mbang at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Union Abong-Mbang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Union Abong-Mbang 0–2 Eding Sport

Eding Sport beat Union Abong-Mbang 2-0 in Elite Two on March 23, 2025.