Eding Sport 1–0 Union Abong-Mbang: Result & Stats

Eding Sport

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Union Abong-Mbang

1/4/2025

Elite Two · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Eding Sport43%

×Draw26%

Union Abong-Mbang32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eding SportExpected goals in this matchUnion Abong-Mbang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.24

Eding Sport

1.48

Union Abong-Mbang

1.24

Eding Sport creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 20 away

1.60

creates per match

0.95

1.53

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Eding Sport

1.60

Union Abong-Mbang

0.95

allows per match

Eding Sport

1.53

Union Abong-Mbang

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eding Sport+0.00on par

Union Abong-Mbang+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eding Sport ↓

Union Abong-Mbang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Eding Sport or draw

68%

Eding Sport or Union Abong-Mbang

74%

Draw or Union Abong-Mbang

57%

Winning margin

Eding Sport wins by 2+

21%

Union Abong-Mbang wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Eding Sport 1+ goals

77%

Eding Sport 2+ goals

43%

Eding Sport 3+ goals

19%

Union Abong-Mbang 1+ goals

71%

Union Abong-Mbang 2+ goals

35%

Union Abong-Mbang 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Eding Sport (draw refunded)

57%

Union Abong-Mbang (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eding Sport at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Union Abong-Mbang away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eding Sport attack 1.60 + Union Abong-Mbang defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Union Abong-Mbang attack 0.95 + Eding Sport defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Eding Sport scores more

43%

level

26%

Union Abong-Mbang scores more

32%

Eding Sport at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Eding Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff