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Uničov vs Odra Petřkovice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Uničov
Uničov
CANC
14:30
Odra Petřkovice
Odra Petřkovice
5/3/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 25Stadion SK Uničov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Uničov42%
×Draw24%
Odra Petřkovice34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uničov
1.66
Odra Petřkovice
1.48

Uničov creates 12% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 12 away

creates per match

Uničov
2.24
Odra Petřkovice
1.83

allows per match

Uničov
1.13
Odra Petřkovice
1.08

finishing

Uničov+0.00on par
Odra Petřkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uničov ↓

Odra Petřkovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Uničov or draw
66%
Uničov or Odra Petřkovice
76%
Draw or Odra Petřkovice
58%

Winning margin

Uničov wins by 2+
22%
Odra Petřkovice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Uničov 1+ goals
81%
Uničov 2+ goals
49%
Uničov 3+ goals
23%
Odra Petřkovice 1+ goals
77%
Odra Petřkovice 2+ goals
43%
Odra Petřkovice 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Uničov (draw refunded)
55%
Odra Petřkovice (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uničov at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Odra Petřkovice away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uničov attack 2.24 + Odra Petřkovice defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.66

Odra Petřkovice attack 1.83 + Uničov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Uničov scores more
42%
level
24%
Odra Petřkovice scores more
34%

Uničov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Uničov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Uničov vs Odra Petřkovice — Match Preview

Uničov face Odra Petřkovice on May 3, 2020 in this 3. liga - MSFL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Uničov host Odra Petřkovice at Stadion SK Uničov.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.